The Great Recession Debate

By Evelyn Witterholt. 

Chief Economist, Mischa Fisher, discusses the recent economic changes and what roofers can do to prepare for the future. 

In the latest episode of Roofing Economic Outlook, Mischa Fisher, chief economist at Angi, and RCS President Heidi J. Ellsworth discuss the various changes to this country’s economy. In episode four, the two talked about the recent fall in lumber prices, the steep rise in gas prices and the debate about whether we are in another recession or not. 

Although the price of lumber is down these days, Mischa says that we have to consider that they are down for the current year. Prices are down, but they are down from the price they were at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. “If you look back over the last decade, it's still roughly double what the pre COVID price was. So I think we are hitting a stage where we do see more normalcy,” Mischa says. 

Another change impacting the construction industry is the rise in interest rates, which has ultimately led to a housing shortage. Mischa explains that these rising interest rates have made it more expensive to purchase a house. He also stated that the overall price of housing is not at an all-time high. 

“It is now at about a 30-year high, so they are getting pretty expensive,” Mischa says. “We should expect sales to slow down, but I don't think we're going to see them drop to zero. We're not facing the great recession here again because the people who are in their homes have a lot of home equity in those homes and have cheap mortgages on them.” 

The two also discuss at length the debate over our economy possibly facing a great recession. Mischa addresses different things we can keep an eye on to determine if a recession is among us. Some things he recommends we keep an eye on are foreclosure rates, unemployment claims and the change in home prices.  

“People still feel really burned from the last recession because it was a housing recession,” Mischa says. “If we do have a recession, I don't think it's going to be concentrated in housing. I think it's going to be concentrated in other areas and that we would weather it pretty well.” 

Watch the entire episode of Roofing Economic Outlook to learn more about the recession debate and other changes to the roofing economy. 

Learn more about Angi in their RoofersCoffeeShop® Directory or visit pro.homeadvisor.com. 

About Evelyn  

Evelyn works as a writer for RoofersCoffeeShop, AskARoofer and MetalCoffeeShop. When she isn’t writing about roofing, she’s either at the gym lifting weights or curled up on the couch watching a movie.