NOAA Predicts Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season

By Karen L. Edwards, RCS Editor.

Forecasters at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have released their 2020 hurricane season predictions.

With a confidence level at 70 percent, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting 13 – 19 named storms this season with six to 10 of those becoming hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. Three to six of those could potentially develop into major hurricanes which means category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher. An average season according to NOAA “produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.”

Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross said in a statement issued by NOAA, “As Americans focus their attention on a safe and healthy reopening of our country, it remains critically important that we also remember to make the necessary preparations for the upcoming hurricane season. Just as in years past, NOAA experts will stay ahead of developing hurricanes and tropical storms and provide the forecasts and warnings we depend on to stay safe.”

There is a combination of factors that are leading the experts to predict a more active season in the Atlantic region. First, El Nino conditions are expected to “remain neutral or trend toward La Nina.” Typically, El Nino conditions suppress hurricane activity. Second, water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are warmer than average and when combined with a reduction in vertical wind shear, lighter trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon will contribute to the increased number of predicted storms.

The Federal Emergency Management Association (FEMA) is encouraging individuals and businesses to plan now in light of the recommendation from the Centers for Disease Control to be safe during COVID-19 as it may impact the plans that you had in place. ““Natural disasters won’t wait, so I encourage you to keep COVID-19 in mind when revising or making your plan for you and your loved ones, and don’t forget your pets,” said Carlos Castillo, acting deputy administrator for resilience at FEMA. FEMA offers an app to assist with developing your plan.

Visit the National Hurricane Center’s website at hurricanes.gov throughout the season to stay current on any watches and warnings. Stay up-to-date with the latest industry news when you sign up for the RCS Week-in-Review e-newsletter.

Image courtesy of NOAA.